Thermal accumulation indicator as a dynamic ocean management tool in the Gulf of Ulloa, Mexico

This study examines the occurrence of cumulative cold events in the Gulf of Ulloa, Baja California (Mexico), defined as sea surface temperatures (SST < 18°C) for ≥5 consecutive days, as a basis for developing an operational environmental indicator to support adaptive fisheries management and reduce sea turtle bycatch. Results indicate a clear seasonal pattern, with the highest frequency of cold events between March and June, coinciding with intensified coastal upwelling and the residence of juvenile Caretta caretta. Eighteen critical areas of persistent environmental conditions were identified as overlapping with areas of turtle-fishery interactions. This indicator could provide near-real-time environmental information to anticipate sea turtle vulnerability and support conservation decisions without relying on static fishery closures.